The Power Puzzle: Planning vs. Operations

Harmonizing Long-Range Planning and Real-Time Operations

Imagine planning a road trip across the country. You map out the scenic routes, estimate fuel stops, and make hotel reservations months in advance. But once you’re on the road, real-time decisions — like avoiding a sudden storm or taking a detour for a can’t-miss diner — are equally critical. That’s what managing the power grid feels like: balancing long-term transmission planning with the immediate demands of real-time energy management.

In this post, we’ll explore how long-range transmission and distribution planning interact with Energy Management System (EMS) operations, what role generation and load interconnections play, and how recent FERC orders are reshaping the rules of the game.

EMS Operations: The Air Traffic Control of Energy

Long-range planning is like designing the airport, while EMS operations are the air traffic controllers keeping planes in the sky. EMS ensures that electricity flows safely and efficiently, balancing generation and load in real time; but here’s the catch: when the plane schedules (long-range plans) don’t match the airport layout (real-time needs), chaos ensues.

This mismatch often arises because planners focus on extremes, while operators optimize for the here and now. Automation tools, like those we are developing, are creating new opportunities for better alignment. For instance, real-time feedback from EMS can help planners adjust forecasts, improve long-term projections, and focus on solutions that reduce manual intervention by the operators. The reverse is also true — planners can provide operators with critical data to prepare for expected bottlenecks or system upgrades and prepare for new large customer additions. By creating a robust feedback loop, the two can work together more seamlessly.

Planning for the Unpredictable: Long-Range Transmission and Distribution

Transmission and distribution planning is like preparing a city’s plumbing infrastructure—mapping out the roads, water lines, and energy flows to meet future demand. Planners build for decades into the future, considering policy changes, renewable energy goals, and population growth.  Transmission is a fancy term for the big power lines (and associated switch yards) towering above the freeway that move massive amounts of power from one city, generation plant, or large customer, to another.  Distribution describes the smaller power lines (and substations) that you see next to the sidewalks and in alleys and dropping into businesses and homes.

Long range planning isn’t just about imagining what an “average day” looks like. It’s about preparing for the extremes—hot summer afternoons when everyone cranks their AC, or bitter winter mornings when heating systems strain the grid. We can’t build the grid for a mild spring day. As we’ll see, this is where long-term planning diverges from operations: planners must anticipate the worst-case scenarios and ensure the grid can handle them.

Sometimes planning feels like building a bridge while the river is still charting its course. Organizations like MISO tackle this complexity with initiatives such as the Long-Range Transmission Plan (LRTP). Their goal? To lay out a grid that can handle not only the energy needs of today but the renewable energy goals of tomorrow. For more insights on this, check out the blog article: “Key Takeaways from Infocast’s Transmission Interconnection Conference.”

Generation and Load Interconnections: The Matchmakers of the Grid

Bringing new generation and load onto the grid is a bit like matchmaking. Planners evaluate whether the suitor (a wind farm, solar project, or new factory) is compatible with the grid. But the process can be daunting because generation and load interconnections often require extensive studies, approvals, and infrastructure upgrades as well as waiting in line while other prospective customers decide whether they will build. Delays and miscommunications often lead to frustration. We dove into this in “Generation Interconnection Explained, Part 1”—a must-read if you’re curious about the nitty-gritty of how generation interconnections are processed and why it sometimes feels like dating in a rom-com (lots of paperwork and hurdles before the happily-ever-after). Operators, meanwhile, must adapt quickly once new generation or load is connected, often requiring upgrades to EMS tools to ensure real-time reliability. Strengthening the collaboration between these groups can reduce bottlenecks and improve grid flexibility.

FERC Orders: The New Rulebook for the Grid

New federal mandates are pushing transmission providers to recalculate grid capacity based o the weather. Recently, FERC has issued orders that shift how we approach planning and operations. Let’s unpack a few:

• Order No. 881 (Ambient-Adjusted Ratings): This rule mandates that transmission ratings account for ambient (real-time outdoor) temperatures, allowing for more accurate utilization of transmission capacity. Picture a highway where the speed limit changes based on weather conditions—a sunny, dry day lets you drive faster, while rain slows you down. That’s the logic behind ambient-adjusted ratings.
• Dynamic Line Ratings: While still under consideration, dynamic ratings could take this a step further by incorporating real-time data like wind speeds, solar radiation, and measured conductor temperature. If implemented, these ratings would optimize grid usage and improve reliability. (see Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on Dynamic Line Ratings (June 2024))These Real-time weather based equipment ratings will allow operators to use transmission capacity more efficiently under favorable conditions – which potentially allows more generation and load customers without major system upgrades. The challenge, however, is how to integrate these into long-range planning. Planners must design the grid for extreme weather scenarios, not average conditions. If more customers can benefit from the existing grid, everyone wins… unless the grid becomes less stable and the lights start randomly going out. The primary use case for these AAR’s and DLR’s is adding generation and large loads (think datacenters) that are willing to be the first to lose power if the grid becomes overstressed – this is because the likelihood of heavily stressed conditions (super hot, no wind, sun shining, and some lines already offline) can be calculated and incorporated into their business plan. On the flip side, protections need to be put in place to keep everyone else from suffering the consequences of the reduced grid reliability.

The Interplay: Building the Grid’s Symphony

Think of the grid as a symphony orchestra. Long-range planners are the composers, writing the score to anticipate future needs. EMS operators are the conductors, ensuring each section plays in harmony, even when a sudden storm forces a key change. When they collaborate effectively, the result is beautiful: a resilient, efficient grid. On the other hand, miscommunication can sound more like a middle school band concert—off-tempo and chaotic. The key is a feedback loop: real-time operations inform future planning about real issues that come up (including severe weather and outage conditions) as well as manual interventions which often gravitate toward frequent fixes rather than one-off patches. Meanwhile long-range plans provide the structure operators rely on – but all too often are not informed about until upgrades go live. Advanced automation can bridge the gap by providing real-time coordination, alerts about plans and surprises, and coordination of the network models. We delve into some such tools in “Unlocking the Potential of Automation in the Generation Interconnection Process”, and “Software Solutions for Generation Interconnection Studies” and look forward to some posts about operations software solutions.

Conclusion: Let’s Get in Tune

The grid is facing unprecedented challenges, from the rapid growth of renewables to the increasing demands of electrification and AI Data Centers. Aligning long-range planning with real-time operations isn’t just a good idea—it’s essential for a sustainable future. But how? There are software and departmental barriers which need to be bridged with software and human interaction. Whether you’re a planner, an operator, or just someone curious about how the lights stay on, there’s plenty to learn from the stories and insights we’ve shared. Dive into Simple Thread’s blog for more, and let’s keep the grid humming together.